aud to usd will be good in 2018. According to the report of FX168 Finance Network, looking forward to the forex market in 2018, the world’s leading investment banks said that the euro, the yen, the Canadian dollar and the Australian and New Zealand currencies are expected to further strengthen their respective central banks’ actions will be crucial to the currency trend.
Mark McCormick, head of North American foreign exchange strategy at TD Securities, said the Bank of Japan “may be the next central bank to send some sort of policy shift.” He expects the dollar against the yen may experience a change in the exchange rate peaked at 115, next expected to fall back to 100 mark. ”
Juan Prada, foreign exchange strategist at Barclays Plc, also expects the yen to strengthen as Japan’s economy moves strongly and core inflation is slowly and slowly rising, prompting the Bank of Japan to change its monetary policy stance in the second half of 2018.
Morgan Stanley said the yen will become the “celebrity currency” in the 2018 foreign exchange market as inflation finally returns to Japan, Japan’s third largest economy.
Hans Redeker, chief strategist at Morgan Stanley, said the 2018 yen was strong from two key sources. First, the global rebalancing of inflation may push Japan’s inflation rate to a high enough level and the Bank of Japan may eventually decide to abandon the current policy of radical easing.
Morgan Stanley has already lowered the dollar-yen forecast for the first quarter of 2018 from 116 to 114. In addition, Morgan Stanley expects the USDJPY to fall to 112 in the second quarter of next year, before falling to 108 and 105 in the second quarter respectively.
The dollar is currently at 113.27 against the yen, with a Bloomberg survey showing that the exchange rate is expected to be 112 by the end of next year.
Vassili Serebriakov, a strategist at Credit Agricole, said that in terms of overall economic performance, Europe is the best, followed by North America and then Asia. He believes that by the end of 2018, the euro-dollar exchange rate will rise to 1.23 aud to usd.
Serebriakov pointed out that the European Central Bank is reducing the QE. Driven by strong growth, capital inflows in Europe continued to be strong. The European debt yields curve may be slightly steeper, which may help the euro. He predicts that near the second half of 2018, investors will begin to consider the pace of tightening of the euro zone policy.
Bipan Rai, currency and macro strategist at CIBC, notes that the euro is still a very cyclical currency. He said that the current European economic cycle is still below the average length of the previous cycle, while the US economic cycle is more mature, is expected by mid-next year, the European Central Bank may consider amending their forward-looking guidelines. Rai expects the euro to reach 1.25 against the dollar by 2018.
Citibank, the world’s largest foreign exchange trader. They said it was ultimately disappointing to the continued economic growth in the Eurozone and the euro against the U.S. dollar next year. With the target of 1.25. Citigroup said that both the actual value aud to usd. However, rather expected, the European data are stronger, far better than the rest of the world.
UBS believes that due to the euro zone economic recovery will deepen in the coming year, optimistic about the 2018 euro against the dollar. The exchange rate is expecting to reach 1.25 by the end of next year.
The euro is currently locating at 1.1861 against the dollar aud to usd. Bloomberg survey shows the end of next year the exchange rate expecting to be locating at 1.21.
Nick Bennenbroek is the currency strategist at Wells Fargo. He said some of the central banks will become more aggressive in monetary policy next year. In addition, the Bank of Canada may be one of them. He said: “Canada’s economy is in good condition. Perhaps Canada’s CPI inflation is gradually rising. However, the help from higher oil prices is also very substantial, currently approaching 60 U.S. dollars per barrel.” He predicts that the dollar will fall against the Canadian dollar in the next 12 months 1.18.
Alvise Marino is the currency strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG. He said strong economic growth prospects and rising inflation will boost the Canadian dollar by 2018. He added that NAFTA is expecting to continue its prospects of net international investment surpluses aud to usd. They coupled with the increase in the number of immigrants. However, they will boost aggregate demand and limit the possibility of a large-scale real estate market adjustment. By the end of next year, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Canadian dollar Trading around 1.20.
But Thierry Wizman of Macquarie Bank Ltd. Is not sure. He warned that fundamentals may not support the Canadian dollar. He said: “We do not think there are many structural drivers for Canada’s economic growth. Therefore, it is not what you want to depend on, except oil prices may remain high.”
USD / CAD is currently locating at 1.2687. Bloomberg survey shows that the exchange rate expected by the end of next year is locating at 1.23.
Daragh Maher is the head of foreign exchange strategy at HSBC. He pointed out that in Australia and New Zealand are the emergency monetary policy. It is no longer needing and the labor market and commodity prices are rebounding. Therefore, the central banks in both countries will switch to exit aud to usd.
For Maher, the macroeconomic context provides a fair amount of support for the RBA and RBNZ. However, it wants to normalize their monetary policies. He predicts that the AUDUSD will reach 0.84 by the end of 2018. While the New Zealand dollar, it will reach 0.75 against the U.S. dollar.
Rai at the Imperial Bank of Canada said we do think the RBA will raise rates next year. However, it may not wait until the second half of next year. He said the Australian dollar. It is likely to get firmer and the bank expects the AUDUSD to rise to 0.85 next year.
CIBC is also optimistic about the New Zealand dollar, that the market position of the currency is too bearish aud to usd. Therefore, the bank recommended investors short Australian dollar against New Zealand dollar.
Moreover, AUDUSD and NZDUSD are currently at 0.7732 and 0.7032. Bloomberg surveys show that by the end of 2018 these two rates will be at 0.80 and 0.72, respectively.
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