As the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes of the meeting earlier this month were considered doves. The Australian dollar fell to a five-month low against the dollar earlier and then rebounded. currency converter brisbane.
Thursday for the United States Thanksgiving holiday. The major currencies light trading today.
The Aussie fell to a five-month low due to the dovishness of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on November 7. The Aussie then rebounded to $ 0.7587 and New York to 0.7547 on Monday.
The dollar index fell 0.2% to 93.932.
As the political turmoil in Germany. The euro volatility yesterday, opening weaker today. However, due to the falling dollar, the euro strengthened. With the latest price quoted at $ 1.1742 and Monday’s daily at $ 1.1733. Currency converter brisbane.
The pound rose slightly to $ 1.3258 and was quoted at 1.3233 late Monday.
Political turmoil in Germany is still worried about the market. The short-term may affect the euro. Prime Minister Merkel, the alliance negotiations between the Greens and Liberal Democrats on Sunday failed. Liberal Democrats have withdrawn from negotiations.
German President Steinmeier called on all parties to return to the negotiating table. Meckel said she would rather hold a general election if she could not reach a coalition agreement than to form a minority government. Currency converter brisbane
In other consultations, the fifth round of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the United States. Canada and Mexico ends today. The next round of negotiations will be held in Montreal in January.
Analysts say there is uncertainty in German politics. However, in the medium term, the early election may not be bad for the euro. I believe that economic growth momentum should be able to overshadow the political uncertainty.
In economic data, the United States in October existing home sales rose 2% to 5.48 million annual rate. Analysts forecast 545 million.
According to Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley sees the Aussie as the aura of its high-yielding currencies has faded or will fall to its lowest point since the global financial crisis of 2009.
Hans Redeker, chief global currency strategist at Morgan Stanley. Said the Australian dollar is forecast to decline to an Australian dollar of 65 cents in 2019. As the benchmark interest rate in Australia will eventually fall below the Federal Reserve. Currency converter Brisbane.
Hans Redeker said the Australian dollar will break the correlation with emerging-market peers. As the Australian dollar evaporated against the U.S. dollar at a premium. Even at a discount. The Australian dollar will be relatively underperformed as currencies in developing countries continue to attract investors in “extraordinarily delightful” real returns. “People used to buy Australian dollars when it did so well in emerging markets. But there is no longer any relevant operation now. We will see that such a relationship is broken simply because there is no profit. ”
The AUDUSD fell more than 1.4% to AUD1.47 as of Tuesday (21st) this month. The worst performing market currency after NOK. Foreign exchange traders have pushed back the timing of the RBA rate hikes. Now expect a rate hike in September next year. Instead of the first half of 2018 due mainly to recent falls in economic data, including inflation.
According to the minutes of the minutes announced by the RBA this month. The interest rate in Australia may remain low for a longer period of time. According to the central bank, there is “considerable uncertainty”. As to when and how wage pressures may emerge and how they will increase inflationary pressures.
As of November 14 the week. Hedge funds and other large speculators more than single-digit reduction to 51425 mouth. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Multiple-unit positions reached a 4-year high of 86,204 at the end of August this year. Currency converter Brisbane.
FX168 Finance Today (22) reported that UBS foreign exchange experts said on the 21st (Tuesday) that although the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue with the current rate hike cycle. The dollar’s performance against the euro will be disappointing in 2018.
The report pointed out that the rise in the benchmark interest rate is usually beneficial to the dollar. Because as the expected rate of return rise. More and more people flock to the United States assets. But UBS, a Swiss investment bank and financial services group. Thinks the euro will outperform the dollar in 2018. So far in 2017, the euro / dollar exchange rate has risen by nearly 11.5%.
The euro / dollar has risen this year as economic data improves. And the central bank is just beginning to slash its massive monthly asset purchase plan. UBS analysts further said. What matters for the dollar is not the timing for the next rate hike. How much could the Federal Reserve tighten in this cycle. The market is already forecasting a certain amount. Currency converter brisbane.
Yianos Kontopoulos, head of global macro strategy at UBS and head of the FX outlook. He said the bank has identified a set of policies that allow policymakers to move further in 2018 against the background of steady economic growth. Low core inflation but rising and accommodative financial environment. The currency that has benefited most from the normalization of monetary policy.
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