USDX fell over 92, reached 91.62, the level of the beginning of 2015. To conclude, it has fallen 10.2% this year. The last time USD fell over 10% was in 2002-2003. What will happen to USD? Some analysts point out that the following trend would depend on Trump’s Tax Reform Policy. At the meanwhile, the others have an opposite opinion. They don’t think Trump’s Tax Policies would change the situation but the trend of Euro is the key.
According to Mingpao Hong Kong, since the consequence of Reforming of Health Care Policies and the resigning of aides in White House, Trump’s government has fallen into chaos. Although his slogan was “Make America great again” campaign, the investors have voted distrust in the exchange market. However, to make American dollars great again depends on Trump’s policies after USD fell over 92.
Among the policies of Trump, Tax Reforming is the most expected by the investors. They hope the policy would reduce the tax and help the companies come back to the US. Moreover, the policy could benefit the average families. Gary Cohn, the president of National Economic Council of the US mentioned Trump would submit the tax reforming policies to the Congress within 3-4 weeks. They hope it would pass in this year.
However, Mr. Wen, the first analyst of an investing company, argued Tax Reforming wouldn’t help the weakness of USD. Even the act has been approved, the results will need time to show. On the contrary, he believes that Euro is the key to influence the trend of USD. Mr. Wen believed that Euro would rise to 1.24 level. The key point would be the Europe Central Bank Reserve Meeting. Once the CEO, Mario Draghi, control the rising trend of Euro or skip the reducing of QE, Euro would change a lot. In the other hand, if Draghi allows Euro goes higher like Jackson Hole in Globe Central Banks Meeting last year, American exchange rate would fell over 90 level.