FX168 Finance Today (22) reported that head of US foreign exchange strategy at HSBC (24) Daragh Maher (21) said that as the monetary policy changes. The Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Norwegian krone and the Swedish kroner are expected to rise in the coming year 8% to 10%. The dollar will be mild, emerging markets positive currency outlook usd to aud.
According to the report, Daragh Maher said in an interview that the current emergency monetary policy is no longer needed and the employment and commodity prices have risen. The currencies of countries that will exit the stimulus will rise, such as the currencies of Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden usd to aud.
According to HSBC’s forecast, the AUD / USD is expected to reach 0.84 at the end of 2018 (currently around 0.77), NZD / USD at 0.75 (currently around 0.70), EUR / NOK at 9.10 (currently around 9.95), EUR / SEK Expected at 9.2 (currently about 9.97).
It is reported that Daragh Maher also pointed out that the outlook for emerging markets will be positive next year due to the mild US dollar The rise in commodity prices and the prospect of China’s economic growth. The renminbi, the Indian rupee, the Indonesian rupiah, the Russian ruble, the Argentine peso, the Brazilian real, the Chilean peso and the currencies of Central and Eastern Europe will become more attractive usd to aud.
With the end of 2017, the dollar will be the worst year in 14 years. But the medium-term outlook for the dollar has become more positive than many on Wall Street. This is because the United States Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in 2018, and the tax reform plan in the United States will bring some benefits, to some extent.
In terms of major developed countries’ currencies. HSBC predicts that the dollar / yen will fall to 108 (currently about 113) by 2018 and the pound / dollar will fall to 1.26 by 2018 (currently 1.34 for the fund). The euro / dollar is expecting to rise to 1.20 in the next two years (Currently less than 1.19). The nominal effective exchange rate fell usd to aud.
According to a Reuters report, the latest survey released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) shows that the real effective exchange rate of RMB index slipped 0.09% to 121.39 in the wake of a five-liter slide in November. In the same month, the Renminbi Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Index dropped 0.02% to 117.87, its first drop in four months and an increase of 0.20% since the previous month’s revision. According to statistics released by BIS, the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi fell 1.18% this year, the effective exchange rate fell 0.59%. In 2016, the real effective exchange rate of RMB fell by 5.69%, while the effective exchange rate of nominal effective dropped 5.85%. It hit its first annual decline in seven years and the largest decrease since 2003 usd to aud.
Australia’s central bank as soon as May next year to raise interest rates Australian housing market, the future gains and losses. Brett Gillespie is a hedge fund manager. He thinks the RBA may start raising rates as soon as May next year. Gillespie, global macro fund manager at Ellerston Capital Ltd, said if the jobless rate drops to 5% in the second quarter of next year. It will stimulate the RBA to start raising interest rates. In the next three years, RBA will raise interest rates twice every 12 months and raise interest rates 1.5 percentage points.
According to Bloomberg survey, the 24 analysts surveyed expected the median. RBA will not have action until the fourth quarter of next year. The RBA has maintained its interest rate at 1.5% for the past 16 months. Helping the economy to slowly transform itself from the mining investment usd to aud boom.
Gillespie said a fall in unemployment would open the green light. The light for the RBA and stop sticking to ultra-low interest rates. Prior to joining Ellerston last year, Gillespie spent 11 years at Tudor Investment, Paul Tudor Jones. As of the end of November, Ellerston manages nearly $ 4.1 billion of assets.
Do not want to say that the real estate market will be sluggish unless you expect the economy to decline. But this will not happen. Real estate prices, though not a bubble that will burst. They are one of the non-investment items for next year. In his opinion, real estate prices will only rise 0% -5% in the next few years.
“For the past 25 years, real estate has generated huge profits almost exclusively. Because of the trend of high inflation and high interest rates switching to low inflation rates. Now that the low interest rates are reflecting in the price.
QIC Ltd which manages US $ 63 billion in overseas funds. They believe the Australian dollar will fall below 70 cents. By around mid-2018 as Australia’s bond interest rates fall below the U.S. bond rate. Furthermore, RBA will not contract until the second half of next year. However, the Fed may raise interest rates three times next year. AMP Capital Investors Ltd which manages $ 137bn, does not agree. However, they predict that the Australian dollar will support above 70 cents. Especially, in the light of China’s strong economy and rising commodity prices usd to aud.
David Bloom, head of global foreign exchange strategy at HSBC. He believes the RBA will have to raise rates next year. Mansoor Mohi-uddin is a director of currency strategy at NatWest Markets. That belongs to a unit of Royal Bank of Scotland. He believes the Aussie will continue to get weaker unless trigger points found usd to aud.
The value of the Australian dollar at the end of 2018 ranged from 67 cents to 86 cents. Underscoring the divergence in opinion among analysts. Market positioning became less bullish as hedge funds and other large speculators cut their long positions. It falling to 44,409 on 12 December according to the CFTC. Then dropping sharply from a 4-year high of 86,204 reached at the end of August.